FAO Food Price Index declines in October, world cereal stocks set to reach record high | FAO News

Rome – World food commodity prices generally declined in October, driven largely by ample global supplies, according to the benchmark measure released Friday by the Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a set of globally-traded food commodities, averaged 126.4 points in October, down 1.6 percent from its revised September level.

The FAO Cereal Price Index declined by 1.3 percent from September, with declines recorded across all the major cereals. The wheat price index dropped by 1.0 percent, the coarse grain index by 1.1 percent, & the FAO All Rice Price Index by 2.5 percent.

The FAO Meat Price Index declined by 2.0 percent in the month, led by sharp drops in pig & poultry prices. Bovine meat prices, however,  continued to rise, driven by higher quotations from Australia due to firm global demand.

The FAO Dairy Price Index declined by 3.4 percent in October, led by a sharp decline in butter quotations tied to ample export availabilities from the European Union & New Zealand. Milk powder quotations also fell, due to limited import demand & strong export competition.

The FAO Sugar Price Index declined by 5.3 percent from the previous month to its lowest level since December 2020, driven by strong production trends in Brazil & anticipated larger outputs in Thailand & India. Lower crude oil prices also exerted further downward pressure on world sugar prices through lower demand from the biofuel sector.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index moved against the overall downward trend, rising by 0.9 percent in October to its highest level since July 2022. Quotations for palm, rapeseed, soy & sunflower oils all rose, due to a mix of factors including biofuel mandates & harvest delays in the Black Sea region.

More details are available here.

New forecasts point to record cereal output & stocks

FAO also released on Friday updated forecasts for global cereal markets. World cereal production is expected to rise by 4.4 percent in 2025 to reach 2 990 million tonnes, a new record level, with foreseen output increases across all major cereals.

The new Cereal Supply & Demand Brief also forecast world cereal utilization in 2025/26 to increase by 1.8 percent from the previous year to 2 929 million tonnes, due mainly to ample supplies & lower prices. Feed use of cereals is expected to rise at a faster pace.

Based on the updated forecasts, global cereal stocks are predicted to expand by 5.7 percent to a record high of 916.3 million tonnes. The resulting global cereal stocks-to-use ratio in 2025/26 is predicted to rise to 31.1 percent, the highest level since 2017/18.

FAO’s updated forecast for world trade in cereals in the 2025/26 season points to a 3.2 percent increase to 499.5 million tonnes. International wheat trade is expected to grow robustly, driven largely by higher imports from Asia, while global rice trade is forecast to decline slightly. 

More details are available here. A more detailed analysis of global cereal markets will be available in the next FAO Food Outlook, to be released on 13 November.

The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), hosted by FAO, also published its monthly Market Monitor on Friday. In addition to the regular market updates, the report features a review of the latest trends in export restrictions on staple crops. These appear to be easing, with notable relaxation by Argentina, India & the Russian Federation – countries that accounted for most of such measures from January 2024 through June 2025.